UK weather: Is it turning warmer?

After a washout few weeks the next couple of days promise something a bit drier and warmer – a welcome change for many.

You might also have seen articles suggesting that a heatwave is on the way, with weeks of dry weather and sunshine.

But before you dust off the barbecue or plan a trip to the coast, it’s worth taking a closer look at what the forecast models and trends are saying.

The Met Office defines a heatwave as three or more consecutive days of temperatures above a certain threshold – which varies depending on where in the UK you are.

In the London area that threshold is 28°C. For Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and most of northern and western England it’s 25°C.

The chances of meeting this definition in the next few weeks seem very slim indeed.

Average April maximum temperatures in the UK are around 10 to 15°C so to get into the mid-twenties for three days in a row would need some very warm air indeed to head our way. And at the moment there are no indications of this.

Of course we don’t need to reach the technical definition of a heatwave for it to feel warm.

And there are some higher temperatures on the way over the next few days – peaking at 20 or 21°C in the South East.

But beyond that it looks like north or north-westerly winds will develop bringing chillier conditions with temperatures likely to be around or just below the seasonal average during the first half of next week.

For many people it is probably rain, rather than the temperature, that has been causing most frustration lately.

The forecast for the week ahead does, arguably, look a little drier – with periods of higher pressure, particularly in the south of the UK.

However the jet stream looks set to bring further rain-bearing weather systems across northern parts and as the northerly winds kick in there could even be sleet or snow mixing into the showers over high ground.

Long-range forecasting is a complex science. Small changes in the atmosphere now can cause big deviations in weather patterns many days or weeks ahead.

But at the moment signs are that the start of May will bring a flip in our fortunes with high pressure and drier conditions in the north and more chance of low pressure and rain further south.

This would mean an easterly wind which could initially be quite chilly, but with the potential for temperatures to rise a little beyond that.

We’ll obviously keep you posted in the weeks and months ahead, as we move through spring and toward summer. But at the moment a heatwave doesn’t feature in our predictions.